With the NFL regular season sneaking up on us, Odds ‘N Ends (ONE) will be branching out with weekly NFL specials.
The regular CFL pick for every game, including the Play of the Week, will continue — right through the Grey Cup.
The plan for the NFL is to present “The weekly 5.” This will include the Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night games as well as one early start and one later (4 pm eastern) slot start, on Sundays
Each week will feature 3-tiers. The weekly “Best Bet” will be one game. There will be 2-games each week in tier 2 and two in tier 3.
Just as with the standard CFL Odds n Ends, we will assume a $100 weekly bankroll would be broken down like this for NFL.
Best Bet $30 wager, Tier-2 $20 per game ($40 total). Tier-3 $15 each ($30 total) for a grand total of $100 per week.
As a reminder, for CFL O’NE we go $20 per game on a 4-game week with an extra $20 on the POW. 3-game weeks are $25/per with an extra $25 on POW.
Of course, you can just bet weekly on the POW, and recall you can find action at online sportsbooks for as little as ten cents per bet!
So, stay in your budget! We use the $100/week budget just to have a fairly easy basis to keep track of performance. While I usually place at least one wager on every game I handicap in these columns, I dont usually bet the budget amounts, I convert the pay-outs to scale each week for performance- review purposes.
For “The Weekly 5,” I plan to use the continued mix of weekly picks against the spread, on the money line and over/under.
Too many sports bettors look only at ATS and that’s why so many handicappers have losing W/L records and/or lose money.
My conservative approach may leave a few bucks on the table every now and then but long-term winnings, in my experience, come from limiting loses and increasing winning percentage.
This often – though not always – means fewer parlays and not as many long shots.
Here’s a look at “The Weekly 5,” for NFL week #1.
Season opener. Thursday Night 9/8. Bills at Rams.
First, my disclaimer. I’m a born and bred Western New York guy, so as much as I like to think I limit my bias in picks, I can’t say I totally eliminate it, especially when it comes to the Bills.
Unfortunately, they are good enough that they are getting lots of prime time play this season, so I will be handicapping them.
In fact, they are the favourites to win the Super Bowl on the futures markets. Opening on the road against the defending champs on Thursday Night (it’s an NBC “off night” broadcast of “Sunday Night Football”), the Bills have their hands full.
The defending champs suffered some off-season losses, including Von Miller’s defection to Buffalo.
Still, in LA, celebrating last season’s success, I’m going to take the “home dog” Rams with the 2-points.
It’s no disrespect to my hometown crew or their title hopes to say I think the champs will, at least, keep it close at home.
Since I have my Buffalo bias, I’m going to make this one of my two tier-3 picks for opening week.
Sunday Night, September 11, Tampa Bay v Dallas
The Bucs are a season removed from their Super Bowl run. Like the Rams, they’ve had their share of off-season drama and changes.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have continued to be under-achievers as far as their fans are concerned.
I know that Tampa is a favourite to do big things this year, with some picking them to win the Super Bowl again.
I’m not discounting the possibility, but I’m not convinced.
I like Dallas to win this game outright, at home, so I’m taking them on the money line.
I’m going to be conservative though and low ball my investment. It’s a tier-3 bet for me.
Monday Night Football – Seattle v Denver
Its the Russell Wilson bowl as the most recognizable Seahawk of the last decade moves on to his new home in the Mile High City.
Its “fortuitous” that league scheduling put these squads together for week one on Monday Night.
Will the Seahawks prove Wilson wrong by proving they are a legitimate contender without him? Or, will he give the Broncos a much anticipated short cut to competitiveness in what may be a brutally strong AFC West?
One thing I think is the gunner will be slinging that ball and the relatively-low over/under will make the “over” the most reasonable bet on this one.
I’m considering this a tier-2 bet for week one.
Sunday Afternoon – Green Bay -1.5 v Minnesota
The Packers have to deal with the loss of their number one receiver.
Minnesota is getting a lot of props as a playoff team.
Again, I’m going to play the skeptic. Show me, and then I will fall in-line on this one.
I like the Packers not only to win, but to cover a fairly short spread. This is another tier-2 level investment.
NFL Best Bet – Washington v Jacksonville
I’ve been a pretty big skeptic of Daniel Snyder and his team dating back to my time in the nation’s capital.
They open their season against the Jags, who should be improved this season. Still, I think this may well be the year that Washington football takes a big step forward.
The line is manageable, the DC defence has been strong as of late, and it’s tough to beat the home team on opening day.
I’m betting Washington to cover ATS.
Enjoy your return to NFL football, week one.
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