Austin, Texas, is the site for the next edition of UFC Fight Night, and it goes on Saturday (Nov.25). The Moody Center will host a fascinating seven-fight prelim card and six-fight main card. The Prelims kick off at 4:00 p.m. EST, and the Main Card goes at 7:00 p.m. EST.

Main Card Analysis

Lightweight: #4 Beneil Dariush versus #8 Arman Tsarukyan

Both of these fighters will be pleading their case about why they should be considered for an upcoming Lightweight Championship or at least a fight for the top contender spot. The 34-year-old Beneil Dariush is just coming off a battle where he faced the top contender in the weight class, Charles Oliveira. Dariush couldn’t get out of the first round before Oliveria caught him with a kick to the head that ultimately led to Dariush losing by kockout. Before that, Dariush won back-to-back fights that went to the judge’s scorecard. All three judges scored the contest 30-27 in favour of Darisuh when he fought Tony Ferguson. Two judges gave him 30-27 scores against Mateusz Gamrot, but one scored it 29-28. There is a legitimate argument that Dariush didn’t lose a round during those two fights before he suffered the devastating blow from Oliveira. With a record of 22-5-1, he has never had back-to-back losses in his career, but he opens as the +240 underdog in this one.

Arman Tsarukyan is seven years younger than his opponent but isn’t lacking in his own fighting experience. Sporting a 20-3 pro record and a 7-2 UFC record, it has been challenging to beat the Armenian fighter. This will only be the second time he has been scheduled for a potential five-round fight, and he lost his last attempt by unanimous decision to Mateusz Gamrot. His only two UFC losses have come from Gamrot and current Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev. He has rallied back-to-back wins since his loss; one was by unanimous decision, and the other was a third-round knockout. His momentum helps him land -300 odds, and a win over Dariush will leave Garmrot with few options other than a chance for the belt against Makhachev or a date with Charles Oliveira before that.

Trey’s Pick: The longer the fight, the better the chances are for Beneil Dariush. He has never lost a fight that has gone the distance. I’m going to take the underdog a +240 in this fight.

Lightweight: #12 Jalin Turner versus #13 Bobby Green

Bobby Green was initially scheduled to fight Dan Hooker, but Jalin Turner has stepped in on late notice since Hooker sustained an injury during training camp. There is almost a 10-year age difference between the two American-born fighters. Strangely enough, both fights hail from San Bernadino, California, and both are on opposite sides of their respective careers. Bobby Green is a true UFC and MMA veteran. He started fighting in 2008 and joined the UFC in 2013. He has 46 career fights and has won 31 of them. He is coming into the fight on a two-fight win streak. He beat Tony Ferguson by submission in the late moments of round three and followed that up by knocking Grant Dawson out in the first round. Although he is coming into this fight on a high note, he is the underdog at +180     

Jalin Turner jumps into this fight and replaces the fighter he lost to in July at UFC 290. Turner and Hooker needed judges to decide the victor when they met up in Las Vegas, and Turner left with a sour taste in his mouth after two scorecards had him the loser by 29-28. It was a split decision as one judge scored it 29-28 in favour of Turner. His fight before that also ended in a split decision, with the two judges feeling he didn’t do enough to earn the win. In 20 career fights, he has never lost by submission, but he is 13-7 all-time. Even with the two recent losses and coming in on short notice, he is the betting favourite at -220    

Trey’s Pick: Bobby Green could be nearing the end of his career. Anyone who is over 45 professional MMA fights has earned a peaceful retirement. It’s always hard to gauge the fire left in a fighter at this point in their career. Some have rallied and come up with an emotional win, but the ship has sailed for some. However, this is his fourth fight in 2023, and he has yet to lose this year. He is 3-0-1, as one of his fights ended as a no-contest because of an incidental head collision. 

I’ll take a chance and say Bobby Green has one more win in him, but with Turner sitting at 13-7, he can’t afford many more losses himself.

Bantamweight: #8 Rob Front versus Deiveson Figueiredo

Former Flyweight champion Devieson Figueiredo will make his Bantamweight debut. He had seven consecutive championship appearances before this one and held a record of 4-2-1. Figueiredo is coming to the completion of the four-part battle against Brandon Moreno. This is the fight time Figueiredo will face someone different since November 2020. He knows what it takes to be a champion, and a new division to terrorize is waiting for him.
It will be no easy task for Rob Font on Saturday, and the Puerto Rican fighter needs to find himself in the win column. He has lost three of his last four, which has hurt his stock because he had previously won four straight fights. Font has shown he can take a beating, and the evidence can be seen in the replay of his fight against Marion Vera. He could go five rounds even though his face was busted and bloody. Font can take a punch, but he must dish them out if he wants a chance to win.

Trey’s Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo is a former champ and has been known to have difficulties cutting weight. Now he is in a heavier class, he should be fresh and ready to go.

Welterweight: #9 Sean Brady versus Kelvin Gastelum

Sean Brady will welcome Kelvin Gastelum back to the Welterweight class. Gastelum had nine fights in the UFC Welterweight division ranging from August of 2013 to June of 2016. He moved back to Middleweight, where he weighed in before his UFC career. Early on, he had some success and even had a belt fight against Israel Adesanya but lost. After his loss for the Middleweight belt, the struggles continued even more. Gastelum only has two wins in his last seven fights. He is ranked #11 in the middleweight category and will be looking to find success again as he moves back down to 170 pounds. The 32-year-old Gastelum is the slight underdog at +105.

Sean Brady suffered his first career loss in his last fight against Belal Muhammad. It was a tough fight to win while facing the Palestinian fighters in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Brady had won 15 straight contests, and five were in the UFC. He has been steadily moving up the Welterweight rankings but had that temporarily stalled after suffering his first loss. The 31-year-old American-born fighter can win in various ways, as he has three wins from TKO/KO and four submission wins. The rest of his fights have gone to decision, and he has always come out on top when the judges were needed. His remarkable record and fighting resume have made him the favourite to win this fight at -124.

Trey’s Pick: It’s hard to bet against a guy who has only lost once in his pro career, so I have to take Sean Brady at -.

Lightweight: Clay Guida versus Joaquim Silva

Clay Guida will make his 59th appearance in the Octagon and his 36th in the UFC. He is seven shy of having the all-time most UFC bouts but has never fought for any belt in that time. However, he has been a pure journeyman and has won enough to earn new contracts. His record is 38-20, and his career has spanned almost two decades. His very first UFC event was headlined by Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin back in UFC 64. Many things have changed in the UFC over that time, but Guida has managed to keep himself relevant. He is steady around the .500 mark in the last several fights. Guida did lose his final battle to Rafa Garcia by unanimous decision. Does that mean it’s time for another win? If it does, then he would pay out at +255.

The 34-year-old Joaquim Silva is not often the younger man in the Octagon, but he is this time. He is sitting at a record of 12 wins and five losses. Four of his losses have come in his last six fights, and his opponent in this one is no slouch. His last five fights have all ended by knockout, and he has been on both sides of them. Silva, too, has never had a real chance at reaching the top ranks of the weight class, but a solid win over the grizzled vet might be what he needs. The Brazilian Silva is the favourite at -325.

Trey’s Pick: Silva is the most significant betting favourite on the main card, so wagering on him won’t provide great value, but it is the safe play here. This is my first time giving out my UFC picks on this format, so there is no need to go too silly. I’m taking Silva.

Middleweight: Punahele Soriano versus Dustin Stolzfus

Two American-born fighters will enter the Octagon, but only one will walk away with the win. The slightly younger fight, Punahele Soriano, celebrated his 31st birthday on November 22. He will be celebrating the occasion by making his 13th career appearance and looking to earn his 10th career win. Soriano’s three career losses have either come by decision or knockout. He has never been successfully submitted yet, as he prides himself on being a true mixed martial artist.

Dustin Stoltzfus has earned victory by submission on five occasions and has won 14 times in his 19-fight career. However, He only has one win in his last five fights, which also accounts for his time in the UFC. He hasn’t proved to be a UFC-caliber fighter yet and has a tough test.

Trey’s Pick: Punahele has proven himself more during his time in the UFC than Stolzfus, and that’s likely a big reason why the odds maker made him the favourite to win. I’d take the favourite betting choice in this bout.

Main Parlay

• Beneil Dariush (+240)
• Bobby Green (+180)
• Deiveson Figueiredo (+115)
• Sean Brady (-125)
• Joaquim Silva (-325)
• Punahele Soriano (-290)

With the odds available at Bett99, my total Main Card Parlay will pay $323.96 if it comes to fruition.

Smart Main Parlay

• Beneil Dariush (+240)
• Sean Brady (-125)
• Joaquim Silva (-325)
• Punahele Soriano (-290)

To hedge my bets, I will place another bet with just these four fights as my smart play. A $5.00 wager has a potential payout of $53.81.

Prelim Analysis 

Women’s Flyweight: Veronica Hardy versus Jamey-Lyn Horth

First up, Veronica Hardy takes on Canadian Jamey-Lyn Horth in a Women’s Flyweight bout. Many will know Hardy by her maiden name, Macedo. This will be the 13th pro-fight for the Venezuelan southpaw. She has a record of 7-4-1 and has had two wins in her last three fights. Her last two fights went the distance, and the judges were needed to decide the winner. The last time she finished a fight was in 2019, when she submitted Polyana Viana in the first round. She currently sits as a minor underdog at +145.

Facing Hardy in the Octagon will be the undefeated Horth. This will be Horth’s seventh pro fight and only her second in the UFC. Judges’ scorecards were needed for her UFC debut, and she landed a 29-28 unanimous decision over Hailey Cowan. Before that, she never needed to go full-time. She can end in multiple ways, as she has three knockout finishes while having ended two fights by submission. The 33-year-old Horth sits as a (-135) betting favourite.

Trey’s Pick: I believe Jamey-Lyn Horth to be the better choice in this fight. She is undefeated and has earned the -170 odds designated to her. This fight will be my anchor to my Prelim parlay.

Welterweight: Wellington Turman versus Jared Gooden

Even though it will be Jared Gooden’s 32nd career fight, and it is his second since returning to the UFC. He lost in his returning bout against Carlston Harris by unanimous decision. He has had a rough time during his UFC stint. He had four fights in his first stint, that went from November of 2020 to January of 2021. During that time, Gooden only earned one win while accumulating three losses, all coming by unanimous decision. He will face the Brazilian Wellington Turman.  

This will be Turman’s ninth fight in the UFC and 26th in his MMA career. He is sporting an 18-7 lifetime record, but his UFC record currently stands at three wins and five losses. Thurman’s last two fights both went distances, and both times, the judges handed him a loss by unanimous decision. Currently, the betting odds favour Thurman at -190 and Gooden at +160. It is clear both fighters are known to stretch the fights out, so keep that in mind when looking at fight prop bets.

Trey’s Pick: Even though Gooden has won more fights in his last three, Turman has shown better defence in the Octagon. I will jump on his -190 odds and look to earn 1.53 units off every unit wagered. Also, I will be looking to put my money on this fight to go the distance.

Light Heavyweight: Rodolfo Bellato versus Ihor Potieria

Both fighters are the same age and earned their chance in the big leagues by competing on Dana White’s Contender Series. Ihor Potieria was in Season Five, Week 5 and fought against L. Sudolski. Potieria won by first round (T)KO. It took just over half of the first round for Potieria to get the job done. Since then, he has a record of 1-2 in the UFC, which leaves his professional record at 20-4. None of his UFC fights have gone to the judge’s decision, and all have ended by either KO or TKO.

The man on the other side of the cage, Rodolfo Bellato, will make his UFC debut. His last fight was on Season 7, Week 9 of Dana White’s Contender Series. That was his second attempt on Dana White’s Contender Series, as he lost his first attempt against V. Petrino. Since then, he has had three straight wins; one was for the Interim Light-Heavyweight World Title in LFA 159. Bellato comes in as the favourite at -400 over Potieria at +310.

Trey’s Pick: Bellato is one of the hottest fighters on the card and will look to jump on this opportunity to shine in the UFC. His knockout potential should be front and center in Potieria’s mind. Bellato has little value at -400, but this is another fight to use as an anchor in a parlay.

Featherweight: Steve Garcia versus Melquizael Costa

The fourth fight slated on the card is a featherweight bout between American Steve Garcia and Brazilian Melquizael Costa. The betting favourite, Costa, comes into the fight at -240 and has a professional record of 20-6. This is only Costa’s third fight since joining the UFC roster, but he only has a .500 record. This will also be the third fight for the 27-year-old in 2023 and sixth in the last two years. He is battle-tested and will be looking for his 14th career win by stoppage.

This is Garcia’s second fight in 2023 and fifth in the UFC. He made his UFC debut on February 29, 2020, but lost by unanimous decision to Luis Pena. With over 19 career MMA fights, Garcia’s record is 14-5 and 11-1 by knockout. He has never won a fight by submission, but he has lost one time that way. Right now, the betting odds on Garcia is +195

Trey’s Pick: This fight is one of the tougher ones on the preliminary side of the card. It could go either way, so I will put my money on the betting underdog to maximize value.

Lightweight: Drakkar Klose versus Joe Solecki

Both lightweight fighters are nearly identical when it comes to measurements and records. Both men have identical height, weight, and reach. The only difference is a five-year age difference and their record. 35-year-old Drakkar Klose is 13-2-1 while the 30-year-old Joe Solecki is 13-3. Klose won by unanimous decision the last time it was in the Octagon. His two fights before that both ended in a knockout, and he was on both sides of them. In 16 career fights, he has never been submitted.

Solecki also has two wins in his last three fights. He won by submission his previous time out and a majority decision the fight prior. He has won eight contests by submission and has yet to lose due to one. Even though he is labelled the +105 underdog, this fight should be close.

Trey’s Pick: Drakkar Klose has never been submitted, and Solecki has eight submission finishes, making this an exciting fight. The odds of this fight going the distance is -160, and the longer the fight goes, the more likely Klose is to win. I’m taking Drakkar Klose because of that fact.

Middleweight: Reese Zachary versus Cody Brundage

Zachary Reese is another undefeated fight featured on the card. After winning in Dana White’s Contender Series in August, this is the first UFC fight. None of his fights have gone to the judge’s scorecards, and that’s the reason why under 1.5 rounds is at -200.

Cody Brundage could use a win, as he has lost three of his last four fights. His only win came because his opponent, Jacob Malkoun, was disqualified after using an illegal elbow to the back of the head. Brundage has not yet shown fire lately, and being matched up against an undefeated stud puts him more behind the eight-ball.

Trey’s Pick: Resse Zachary

Women’s Bantamweight: #12 Miesha Tate versus #13 Julia Avila

Former Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate returns to the Octagon after 17 months away. She briefly served as champion after he beat Holly Holm but lost the title to Amanda Nunes in the next fight. After losing the belt, Tate lost three of her next four fights. All those losses were unanimous decisions, and she never really showed anything special.

Julia Avila’s stock is on the rise, and this is an important battle that can get her close to a title chance. She’s lost twice in her career but has won nine fights. This is Avila’s fifth fight on the UFC roster, and she is coming in off a submission win against Julija Stoliarenko.

Trey’s Pick: This is Julia Avila’s fight to lose. I’m riding her in this one because she’s still on her quest to become champion.

Prelim Parlay

• Jamey-Lyn Horth (-170)
• Wellington Turman (-190)
• Rodolfo Bellato (-400)
• Steve Garcia (+195)
• Drakkar Klose (-125)
• Zachary Reese (-225)
• Julia Avila (-145)

A $5.00 wager is expected to earn $196.35 if I correct all seven fights. However, a seven-fight parlay takes a lot of work to hit. Here is my smart play with only four of the preliminary fights. I will lock the fights and throw a value play to increase the price.

Smart Prelim Parlay

• Jamey-Lyn Horth (-170)
• Rodolfo Bellato (-400)
• Zachary Reese (-225)
• Steve Garcia (+195)

A $5.00 bet has the potential to win $42.30. The total potential payout for all four parlays is $616.42. Another option is to bet on each game individually, and I suggest that to anyone newer to wagering on the UFC. There is less reward, but it also has less risk needed.

 Enjoy the fights and best of luck, but please keep it just a game.

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