Well, we are through two weeks, so before we move on to week three picks, let’s have a little recap.
I make one pick for every CFL game based on the three-major game bets (over/under, money line, and “against the spread”). I also choose one of these as the “play of the week.” So, if you were going to only make one play, the POW would be the one!
The other way to look at POW is that, if you bet every game you should double your stake on the POW. Right now our overall record is 5-3 and the POW is 2-0. So, if you had bet $100 total weekly (40 on POW and 20 on the other games), right now you’d be up $44. We broke even for week one at 2-2 including the POW win. With a 3-1 record for week 2, we’d have turned $100 into $144.
If you decided to only play $40 on the POW each week and skip the other games, you would have been up $22 on week one, and $24 week 2 (total of $46). Of course, past results do not guarantee future outcomes but, here are my picks for week 3.
Saskatchewan @ Montreal
While the Riders have not been overwhelming, they are 2-0 including a road win. Montreal has lost two nail-biters, both on the road, so a homecoming sounds good to the birds.
Saskatchewan took a major hit to its offensive line, with a late-game injury to Dan Clark in Edmonton. Montreal has not found an offensive rhythm or identity.
If Jamal Morrow can replicate last week’s effort — and the Alouettes didn’t exactly shut down Ka’Deem Carey in week one, nor completely halt Andrew Harris in week 2 — then Cody Fajardo may have the luxury of a little more time to light it up with his receivers.
The Riders are a three-point favorite (-110 on both sides) but I’m going to take the “over” at 45.5 (-110), figuring the Als will find some offence for their home opener.
Ticats @ Bombers
Last week, the Ticats figured out their offence at home. Let me be among the first to say I’m not so sure the Bombers can say the same thing.
As good of a defensive squad as Ottawa can be, I’m thinking the main cause behind the Bombers early scoring deficiencies may be personnel changes on offence.
This week may tell the tale.
The Bombers come in -5 (-110 on both sides) but I’m rolling with Winnipeg on the money line (-215). It’s a small payout, but until the Bombers show some ability to put points up, I can’t get comfortable taking them to cover spreads and with the over/under at 42.5 (-110). I can’t touch either side of that.
The Battle of Alberta – CFL style
As predicted, Edmonton improved at home in week two. Kenny Lawler can dominate, and if they can get James Wilder Jr. going, the Elks may still turn things around.
The not-so-secret, is the defensive line is having a hard time stopping plays out of the backfield. James Butler in week one, and Jamal Morrow in week two both had big games. Come now the Stamps and Ka’deem Carey. While Carey’s contribution was limited thanks to an early injury that knocked him out of the game, I expect him to bounce back big this week.
With Carey, Reggie Begelton, Kamar Jordan, and a couple of up-and-coming receivers, I’m thinking the Stamps are going to put up some points.
This was my hardest pick of the week with Calgary opening at -9.5 (-110), and the over/under on 50. The line moved a full point to -8.5 very fast, so the betting population is figuring on a closer game.
I’m going to go counter-directional and take advantage of the early movement. I have the Stamps, -8.5 (-110).
Argonauts @ Lions
Is BC for real, or did they just whip an inferior opponent in week one?
Right now the East is bunched up. Based solely on records, the Argos have a half leg up on the competition. With both of these 1-0 crews having already tasted a bye week, we will look to see which one can make winning a trend.
I’ve got to go with BC -3.5 (-110 on both sides) at home this week, and I’m going to make this my Play of The Week (2× stake).
The over/under is 48 (-110), and while I was tempted to take BC on the money line, with another smallish payout there, I figured I’d take the risk that the Lions early season points barrage could get them to a 4+ point home win.
My picks this week are based on Tuesday morning lines from DraftKings sportsbook. And, as ever, I do sometimes make plays other than those I outline here.
Enjoy the games and play responsibility.
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